Thursday, June 30, 2016

How Much Is Stephon Gilmore Really Worth?

The NFL has been pretty quiet the past couple of weeks since mini-camp finished up, but there are still some "elephants in the room" as far as contract situations go. Buffalo has a few of them on their hand, such as Tyrod Taylor and Stephon Gilmore. The focus right now is on Gilmore's contract, as he has threatened to miss time if a new deal does not get done soon. Gilmore is an excellent corner who has displayed some amazing skill over his tenure here in Buffalo, and it's time he gets paid. Overall, what will Buffalo be willing to pay, and more importantly, what is he worth? Let's break it down.

There are three main categories in which I value players. Each category is rated out 1-5 (5 of course being the best). At the end, the overall grade of the player will result in how I value said player.

Pass Defense: 4/5
Stephon Gilmore is excellent in coverage, more so man-to-man. He is a physical cornerback who can frustrate receivers (ex. Odell Beckham Jr.) as well as hold his own with any receiver. This past season, Gilmore posted 3 picks, 36 tackles, and an impressive 18 passes defended in 12 games. He will challenge a receiver, and adjusts well to the ball.  He needs to continue to work on his game though, as Gilmore still struggles with reading shorter routes, such as curls. Overall, his Pass Defense rating is a 4, as he could still perfect his game.

Run Defense: 3.5/5
Gilmore, as stated above, is a very physical cornerback who is not scared to try and lay a big hit. Gilmore does not play a big role in the run defense as Buffalo's front 7 has been dominant over the past few seasons. Still, his ability to lay a big hit along with his speed allows him to make a stop when needed. His run defense is rated a 3 as his tackling is not perfect, and he is often blocked out of plays. Gilmore needs to utilize his strength to break into the route of the runningback to make a tackle. 

Tackling: 3.5/5
Despite Gilmore being able to lay out a huge hit at times, his tackling is not the greatest. He is a solid tackler, and relies on technique and form to make a successful tackle. He needs to improve his tackling in space, but overall, his tackling is acceptable.

Injuries: 3/5
Stephon Gilmore's career has had a lot of injuries, and that may be his biggest downfall as a cornerback. He's missed 11 total games in his 4 year career, having a perfect 16/16 games played only in his rookie year. He's had mainly upper body injuries, such as wrist and shoulder injuries. He's gotta learn to stay on the field to optimize his usage and prove how consistent he can be.

Overall: 14/20
I'm grading Stephon Gilmore at a 14/20, which although it seems low, I give more weight to his excellent pass coverage and physical aspect he brings to the game. Gilmore plays a tough game of football, and deserves a big payday for sure. He has the potential, with a few tweaks to his game and of course, health, to become a top 5 cornerback in the NFL. So, that brings up a question, as perhaps a top 10 corner in the NFL, how much is he worth? 

Ideal Contract: 5 years/$12.5M per year.
This is the type of contract I would offer to Gilmore. In my opinion, he is not worth $14m-$15m, especially with 2nd year product Ronald Darby on the rise. It will be interesting to see what Buffalo does, but this is where I value Gilmore.

Stats: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GilmSt00.htm\
Image #1:  (USATSI)
Image #2: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

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